Prediction markets 101

Never traded a prediction market before? This page gives you everything you need. It takes five minutes, and afterward the rest of Panther will make sense.

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What is a prediction market?

A prediction market lets you trade on the outcome of a real-world event — an election, a game, a Fed decision, a movie release. Each market asks a simple question with a definite answer, like:

Will France win the 2026 World Cup?

You buy Yes if you think it will happen, or No if you think it won’t. When the event resolves, one side is right:

• Every winning contract pays out $1.00.
• Every losing contract is worth $0.00.

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Prices are probabilities

Before the event resolves, contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢. The price is the market’s live estimate of the odds: Because Yes and No are two sides of the same question, their prices add up to about $1. If Yes trades at 40¢, No trades near 60¢.

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How you make (or lose) money

There are two ways to profit: A quick worked example:

1. You think France (trading at 40¢) is underpriced.
2. You buy 25 Yes contracts for $10.00.
3. France wins → your contracts pay $25.00**. Profit: **$15.00.
4. France loses → your contracts expire worthless. Loss: $10.00.

Your maximum loss is always what you paid — there’s no leverage or margin call.

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Events vs. markets

An event is the umbrella question (“2026 World Cup Winner”). Inside it are individual markets, one per outcome (“France”, “Argentina”, “England”…). In Panther you browse events, then pick the specific market you want to trade.

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Where the markets come from

Panther connects you to the two biggest prediction-market venues: The same real-world question often trades on both venues — sometimes at different prices. That’s where Panther’s Arbitrage Scanner gets interesting.

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What moves prices?

Supply and demand. Traders buy and sell against each other in an order book, just like a stock exchange — there’s no house setting the line and no bookmaker margin. When news breaks, traders react and the price adjusts within seconds. That’s why prediction-market prices are often the fastest, most honest odds you can find.

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Ready to try it?