> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.getpanther.app/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Prediction markets 101

> New to prediction markets? Everything you need to know before your first trade.

Never traded a prediction market before? This page gives you everything you need. It takes five minutes, and afterward the rest of Panther will make sense.

## What is a prediction market?

A prediction market lets you trade on the outcome of a real-world event — an election, a game, a Fed decision, a movie release. Each market asks a simple question with a definite answer, like:

> *Will France win the 2026 World Cup?*

You buy **Yes** if you think it will happen, or **No** if you think it won't. When the event resolves, one side is right:

* Every **winning** contract pays out **\$1.00**.
* Every **losing** contract is worth **\$0.00**.

## Prices are probabilities

Before the event resolves, contracts trade between **1¢ and 99¢**. The price is the market's live estimate of the odds:

| Yes price | The market thinks...             |
| --------- | -------------------------------- |
| 5¢        | Very unlikely (\~5% chance)      |
| 40¢       | Possible but not favored (\~40%) |
| 85¢       | Likely (\~85%)                   |
| 99¢       | Nearly certain                   |

Because Yes and No are two sides of the same question, their prices add up to about \$1. If Yes trades at 40¢, No trades near 60¢.

## How you make (or lose) money

There are two ways to profit:

<CardGroup cols={2}>
  <Card title="Hold to resolution" icon="flag-checkered">
    Buy Yes at 40¢. If the event happens, each contract pays \$1.00 — a 60¢ profit per contract. If it doesn't, you lose the 40¢.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Trade the move" icon="arrow-trend-up">
    Buy Yes at 40¢, and if news pushes the price to 55¢, sell for a 15¢ profit per contract — no need to wait for the outcome.
  </Card>
</CardGroup>

A quick worked example:

1. You think France (trading at **40¢**) is underpriced.
2. You buy **25 Yes contracts** for **\$10.00**.
3. France wins → your contracts pay $25.00**. Profit: **$**15.00**.
4. France loses → your contracts expire worthless. Loss: **\$10.00**.

Your maximum loss is always what you paid — there's no leverage or margin call.

## Events vs. markets

An **event** is the umbrella question ("2026 World Cup Winner"). Inside it are individual **markets**, one per outcome ("France", "Argentina", "England"...). In Panther you browse events, then pick the specific market you want to trade.

## Where the markets come from

Panther connects you to the two biggest prediction-market venues:

<CardGroup cols={2}>
  <Card title="Kalshi" icon="landmark">
    A US-regulated exchange with markets on politics, economics, weather, sports, and more. Requires a one-time identity check before you buy.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Polymarket" icon="globe">
    The largest global prediction market, covering everything from world events to pop culture. No identity check required.
  </Card>
</CardGroup>

The same real-world question often trades on **both** venues — sometimes at different prices. That's where Panther's [Arbitrage Scanner](/panels/arbitrage) gets interesting.

## What moves prices?

Supply and demand. Traders buy and sell against each other in an **order book**, just like a stock exchange — there's no house setting the line and no bookmaker margin. When news breaks, traders react and the price adjusts within seconds. That's why prediction-market prices are often the fastest, most honest odds you can find.

## Ready to try it?

<Columns cols={2}>
  <Card title="Practice with demo mode" icon="flask" href="/accounts/demo-mode">
    Trade with simulated money against real prices — zero risk.
  </Card>

  <Card title="Learn to read a market" icon="glasses" href="/learn/reading-a-market">
    Spread, volume, resolution rules — what the numbers mean.
  </Card>
</Columns>